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Ken Etete, founder of Nigeria’s Century Group, has urged African governments to back what he calls a new class of “steel-and-rail-and-oil” builders, casting Aliko Dangote as a bellwether for the continent’s next industrial chapter. In an opinion article published in Nigeria's Daily Trust, Etete argues that Africa’s growth depends on policies that reward long-horizon investment in refineries, power, ports and basic industry — and on allowing private operators to stitch those pieces together at scale.
Etete’s essay — striking for its blunt case for industrial policy with a private-sector spine — lands as Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Lagos ramps fuel shipments after a year of stop-start commissioning. Company officials said output now tops Nigeria’s domestic needs, with daily loadings of roughly 45 million liters of gasoline and 25 million liters of diesel, an inflection that has already jolted local traders and import patterns.
The refinery’s newfound momentum is central to Etete’s point. If Africa is to “forge its own Gilded Age,” he writes, it won’t be built on extractive booms alone but on assets that convert raw materials into finished products at home. He frames Dangote as a modern analogue to the industrialists who knit together America’s 19th-century growth spurts — not for hero worship, he says, but to underline the need for policy consistency, patient capital and infrastructure that lowers unit costs over time.
That case comes as Nigeria’s fuel market tilts in real time. Some importers have pared back purchases, betting that local output — and direct distribution by Dangote — will keep squeezing margins on imported product. Industry press and local broadcasters report the refinery is preparing wider nationwide supply while adding capacity across its logistics chain.
Etete’s broader prescription reads like a to-do list for policymakers: clear permitting for big industrial sites; local-content rules that deepen, rather than discourage, investment; and targeted incentives to pull finance into midstream and downstream projects. The goal, he argues, is not protectionism but a ruleset that lets private operators commit to 10- and 20-year build-outs without whiplash.
He also positions supply-chain depth — steel, cement, petrochemicals, power — as the difference between headline GDP and durable productivity gains. The refinery’s expansion ambitions, including product exports to Asia earlier this year and a plan to widen domestic trucking and storage, are cited as early signals of how an anchor asset can rewire trade flows.
Etete, whose firm operates across Nigeria’s oil-and-gas services and production chain, is not a neutral observer. Century Group’s model depends on local assets being built and operated to global standards. Still, his argument channels a broader frustration among operators: Africa’s private capital is often asked to deliver public outcomes — jobs, power, cheaper fuel — while navigating inconsistent policy and thin infrastructure.
For now, Dangote’s plant has become the shorthand in boardrooms and ministries alike. A refinery that meets domestic demand and ships surplus abroad would mark a break from decades of reliance on imports. Etete’s view is that the moment won’t last without follow-through — on permitting, grid reliability, rail and port access, and targeted finance to replicate complex projects beyond Lagos.
Whether governments move fast enough is the open question. Nigeria’s economy needs productivity wins; the region needs proof that heavy industry can earn steady returns. Etete’s wager is that policy certainty, paired with operators willing to take reputational and balance-sheet risk, can get it there. The refinery’s recent run suggests the thesis is testable — and that Africa’s next industrial era, if it comes, will be built one large, capital-hungry asset at a time.
