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Nearly two weeks after Farouk Ahmed stepped down as chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the regulator has disclosed that petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery fell short of official projections in November, even as overall fuel availability across the country increased.
In its November 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet, NMDPRA said the $20 billion Dangote Refinery, owned by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote, was expected to deliver 35 million liters of petrol a day to the domestic market. Actual daily volumes averaged 23.52 million liters. The shortfall came during a period when Nigeria’s estimated petrol consumption eased to about 52.9 million liters a day, down from 56.7 million liters in October.
Imports drive Nigeria’s petrol supply surge
The regulator said the decline in demand coincided with a sharp rise in total petrol supply nationwide. Daily supply climbed to 71 million liters in November, compared with 46 million liters a day a month earlier. Imports accounted for the bulk of that increase, contributing 52.1 million liters a day, while local refineries, including Dangote, supplied about 19.5 million liters.
NMDPRA attributed the higher supply to corrective action taken after fuel availability fell below national needs in September and October. Officials said additional imports were approved to rebuild stock levels and reduce the risk of shortages as travel and commercial activity typically rise toward the end of the year.
The disclosure comes amid leadership changes at the petroleum regulator. Ahmed resigned days after Dangote publicly called for an investigation into media reports that the former chief executive paid about $5 million for the secondary education of his four children in Switzerland. President Bola Tinubu has since forwarded the name of Engineer Saidu Aliyu Mohammed to the Senate for confirmation as Ahmed’s replacement.
Dangote refinery fuels Nigeria’s demand
Commissioned in 2023 with an initial capacity of 350,000 barrels a day, the Dangote Refinery began full petrol production in September 2024 and is gradually working toward its design capacity of 650,000 barrels daily. The company has said its goal is to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel and stabilize domestic supply.
Dangote has repeatedly said the refinery plans to keep fuel flowing through the festive season. During a recent visit by the South-South Development Commission, he said the plant would release about 1.5 billion liters of petrol into the local market in December and another 1.5 billion liters in January 2026, equivalent to roughly 50 million liters a day starting December 1.
Output is expected to rise further in February to about 60 million liters a day. He noted that current daily production already ranges between 40 million and 45 million liters. For regulators and consumers alike, the November figures underline the gap between plans and delivery at Africa’s largest refinery, while also highlighting the government’s continued reliance on imports to keep fuel stations supplied during periods of high demand.
