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Dangote Refinery, the $20 billion facility owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has warned that petrol prices in Nigeria could more than double if the country continues to rely heavily on imported fuel, raising fresh concerns about energy costs in Africa’s largest economy.
In a recent statement, the refinery said pump prices could climb to as high as N1,400 ($0.97) per liter in a post-subsidy market if domestic refining is not fully embraced. That would be a sharp increase from prices that fell as low as N699 ($0.48) per liter during the festive period.
Dangote Refinery operations check petrol price hikes
The refinery, the world’s largest single-train refinery, said recent price movements underscore what it described as a hard truth for Nigeria’s downstream sector. Without local refining capacity, fuel importers would continue to dictate prices, leaving consumers exposed to sharp swings in global markets and foreign exchange pressures.
“Recent price movements further highlight an uncomfortable reality,” the company said. “In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint, with petrol prices potentially escalating to levels estimated at up to N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment.” It added that its operations have helped keep prices from rising faster than they otherwise would.
Claims of shutdown called misleading
The comments came as refinery officials pushed back against reports that the facility had shut down its petrol unit for maintenance. The company described the claims as inaccurate and misleading, saying they were being used to justify another round of pump price increases.
Officials at the refinery said operations have continued without interruption and that no trucks have been turned away. On Saturday alone, the refinery supplied 43.3 million liters of petrol to the Nigerian market, they said, a volume they noted is roughly half more than the country’s estimated daily consumption.
“Have we stopped loading or turned back a single truck?” one official said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “On Saturday alone, we loaded 43.30 million liters of PMS.”
Petrol deliveries lag while consumption falls
This comes against the backdrop of earlier concerns raised by Nigeria’s fuel regulator about supply levels from the refinery. In December, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said petrol deliveries from the Dangote Refinery fell short of official expectations in November, even as overall fuel availability improved nationwide.
According to the regulator’s November 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet, the refinery was expected to supply about 35 million liters of petrol a day to the domestic market. Actual deliveries averaged 23.52 million liters daily during the month. The shortfall occurred as Nigeria’s estimated petrol consumption declined to about 52.9 million liters a day, down from 56.7 million liters in October, easing some pressure on supply.
