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Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is seeing his mega-refinery in Lagos gain strategic importance as refinery shutdowns sweep across Europe and North America. Energy intelligence firm Kpler says the closures have tightened global fuel markets, giving the Dangote refinery more influence over product flows.
Kpler reports that roughly 900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in the West of Suez have been permanently removed, reshaping supply dynamics. The loss of European and North American capacity has particularly affected the Atlantic Basin, heightening reliance on late-cycle mega-refineries like Dangote’s mega-refinery.
“The permanent closure of nearly 800,000 barrels per day across Europe and North America has materially tightened product balances,” Kpler said. “The market’s ability to rebalance now depends on the operational normalization of two late-cycle mega-refineries: 650,000 bpd Dangote and 340,000 bpd Dos Bocas, both designed to anchor regional supply.”
Refinery could boost global fuel supply
Despite its scale, Dangote’s refinery has faced technical setbacks. Mechanical issues at its core conversion unit, the RFCC, have capped output at 60–65 percent, preventing the plant from fully exerting its influence on Atlantic Basin fuel flows. Kpler noted that a corrective shutdown in December, expected to last 50–60 days, represents a “pivotal point” for the facility.
“If executed successfully, the refinery could move from marginal participation to structural relevance by mid-2026,” Kpler said. “At full utilisation, it could add roughly 300,000 bpd of gasoline, 150,000 bpd of gasoil, and 140,000 bpd of jet fuel, helping ease the tightness caused by global refinery exits.”
Dangote Refinery grows rapidly in capacity
The refinery, which began operations in 2024 at 350,000 barrels per day, now processes about 650,000 barrels daily. Production is expected to reach 700,000 barrels per day. The Dangote Group plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, which would make it the world’s largest single-train refinery.
Engineers India Limited will manage the expansion project, valued at over $350 million, serving as both Project Management Consultant and EPCM consultant. The refinery already operates around the clock, supplying about 50 million liters of petrol to the market. CEO David Bird has indicated the expansion could be completed within three years and is preparing the refinery for a potential public listing, positioning it as Nigeria’s largest industrial asset.
With Europe’s refining footprint shrinking, Dangote’s facility is now under global scrutiny as a stabilizing force in the Atlantic Basin, helping offset the impact of international refinery closures and supporting global fuel supply. Aliko Dangote, with a net worth of $30.4 billion, continues to drive Africa’s industrial development.
