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Billionaire Patrice Motsepe is being talked about as a possible answer to South Africa’s long running mining decline, not because he has announced any political ambition, but because of his deep familiarity with the industry.
That view comes from mining analyst Peter Major of Modern Corporate Solutions, who says Motsepe is one of the few people who understands both the realities of running mines in South Africa and the policy constraints that have held the sector back.
Major’s comments follow renewed speculation that Motsepe could be persuaded to seek the presidency of the African National Congress ahead of the party’s elective conference in 2027. Motsepe has repeatedly denied any intention to run, but talk of a possible bid has grown louder in recent months.
His name has appeared in public opinion polls, and there have been reports of ANC branches nominating him for leadership roles. Supporters have even begun circulating party shirts bearing slogans linked to his name.
Major argues that if Motsepe were ever to gain real influence over mining policy, he could help reverse years of decline with relatively simple changes.
He is particularly critical of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act of 2002, which he says marked a turning point for the industry. In the two decades since the law was introduced, South Africa has seen very little new mineral exploration despite holding significant untapped resources.
According to Major, the legislation weakened ownership rights and raised the risk profile for long term investment.
“Mines are hundred year investments,” he said. “If you tell investors they no longer own the ground beneath their operations and must keep reapplying for permission to mine, the investment case collapses.”
Major said Motsepe would not need to dismantle the system entirely. Instead, he believes a rewrite of mining law, informed by South Africa’s earlier frameworks and international examples, could restore confidence.
South Africa’s policies, he noted, were historically designed for deep level gold mining and power intensive platinum operations. Updating them to reflect modern mining realities could make the country competitive again.
The mining sector, once a pillar of the economy, has steadily shrunk over the past 20 years. Output has fallen, exploration has dried up, and the country has failed to benefit fully from high global commodity prices.
Companies operating in the sector point to policy uncertainty, rising regulatory demands, difficult labour relations and deteriorating public services as major obstacles. Calls for nationalisation from parts of the governing alliance have also added to investor unease.
Major says the cumulative effect has been devastating.
“You spend decades building a modern operation, then you’re told the minerals are no longer yours,” he said. “You can use them for a limited time, under changing conditions, and maybe get renewed later.”
Beyond ownership issues, he highlighted the growing burden of compliance requirements, including shifting empowerment thresholds and procurement rules, which he says have pushed capital elsewhere.
As a result, South Africa now risks following the same path as other mining jurisdictions that struggled to recover once investor confidence was lost.
Whether Motsepe ever enters politics remains uncertain. What is clear, analysts say, is that the mining sector’s problems are well understood. The question is whether anyone with enough influence is willing, or able, to fix them.
