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When the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran in the early hours of Feb. 28, the world braced for economic chaos. Oil spiked. Currencies rattled. And South Africa, a country that imports every drop of oil it consumes, looked squarely at another brutal petrol price hike.
But there is another side to this story, one that does not make it into the conversations around kitchen tables or filling station queues.
The same war that is squeezing ordinary South Africans is creating a windfall for the country's gold and platinum group metals sector. And few stand to gain more from the turmoil than Patrice Motsepe, the billionaire founder of African Rainbow Minerals.
Oil climbs, rand bleeds
Brent crude oil climbed above $99.96 per barrel by Monday midday, up sharply from $87.19 on the previous Friday and crossing the $100 threshold for the first time in four years. The rand was trading at R16.16 to the dollar. Fuel, food and transport costs are all heading upward, and the prospect of interest rate relief is being pushed back further still.
Yet gold, which hit more than $5,400 an ounce on Monday, is having a spectacular run. Geopolitical shocks have always sent investors scrambling for safe-haven assets, and this conflict is no different. Gold Fields gained over 4% on Monday. Harmony Gold jumped more than 5%. Sibanye-Stillwater added more than 3%. DRDGold shot up close to 8%.
Mining sector catches the tailwind
"Higher rand-denominated export prices for gold and PGMs directly boost revenue for mining companies and, indirectly, tax receipts for the fiscus," said Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services. "This helps cushion the economy from more expensive oil imports."
Platinum group metals, which include platinum, palladium and rhodium, are responding too. Together, gold and PGMs make up a significant slice of South Africa's export basket. When their prices climb, the country earns more foreign currency on every shipment it sends abroad, which partially offsets the damage from a surging oil import bill.
Els described this as a built-in buffer. When export prices rise faster than import costs, the current account balance can stabilise or even improve. South Africa, he said, is in a considerably stronger position to absorb external shocks now than it was a few years ago, after steps taken to consolidate the fiscal position and slow the growth of public debt.
ARM's timing could hardly be better
The timing of the conflict is particularly significant for ARM.
In the company's interim results released last Friday, covering the six months to Dec. 31, 2025, ARM reported that headline earnings at its platinum division surged more than 200% to R704 million, compared with a R689 million loss in the first half of 2025. Management credited the jump largely to a sharp increase in PGM rand basket prices.
The company also flagged that the Merensky Reef project at its Two Rivers Mine, mothballed in July 2024 when PGM prices collapsed, could now be brought back online if market conditions continue to improve. The Two Rivers Mine produces platinum, palladium and rhodium, with gold as a byproduct.
Economists see a R350 billion upside
Economist Dr. Azar Jammine, speaking at the AfriSam Annual Budget conference in Sandton earlier this month, estimated that higher gold and PGM prices resulting from the conflict could inject between R300 billion and R350 billion into the South African economy compared with previous price levels. "This could be absolutely enormous," he said.
South Africa is home to several of the world's largest PGM operations, including Anglo American Platinum's Mogalakwena Mine, Sibanye-Stillwater's Marikana Mine and Impala Platinum's Impala Rustenburg Mine.
The threat that could flip the script
The upside, however, is not without risk.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which a large portion of the world's seaborne oil passes each day. If that threat is carried out, or if attacks disrupt key export infrastructure along the Gulf, the oil price shock could dwarf the current spike.
"In such a scenario, oil prices could rise sharply, placing additional pressure on inflation, real incomes, and corporate margins, with a more pronounced impact on growth," Els warned.
South Africa imports all of its crude oil and pays in dollars while earning in rand. A sustained oil price surge, particularly one that pushes petrol prices sharply higher each month, would undercut consumer spending, lift inflation and likely delay any further interest rate cuts from the South African Reserve Bank.
Fuel price shock looms large
Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop calculated that if the dollar-rand rate holds around current levels and oil stays near $80 per barrel through March, the country faces roughly a 9% month-on-month increase in the fuel price. That alone, she estimated, could add approximately 0.4 percentage points to consumer price inflation.
The mining sector's gains, in other words, will not insulate everyone. The question is whether the gold and platinum windfall is large enough to cushion the broader hit, and whether the conflict stays contained enough to give those gains time to materialise.
South Africa better placed than before
South Africa has been here before, navigating the push and pull of commodity booms against energy shocks. The difference now, economists say, is that the country's fiscal credibility has improved enough to give policymakers more room to respond without triggering a funding crisis. Whether that room is enough will depend largely on how the next few weeks in the Middle East unfold.
