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Something close to a tipping point happened quietly in Nigeria's downstream oil sector over the past two months, and its consequences may take years to fully unravel.
Nigeria has suspended the issuance of gasoline import licences for a second straight month, with regulators now enforcing provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act that only permit imports when domestic supply falls short of national demand. The result is that one company, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, has rapidly become the engine of the country's fuel supply in ways that are drawing both applause and alarm.
Nearly all gasoline supplied domestically in February came from Dangote's plant. Oil marketing firms, including a unit of TotalEnergies SE, Conoil Plc and MRS Nigeria Plc, which together imported 38% of the nation's gasoline in January, had their licences suspended.
According to sources at the NMDPRA, the country does not need to import petrol now, as local refining can meet the country's daily fuel needs. One official, speaking without authorization, put it plainly: "It is obvious that the local production has met national requirements. So, there's no need for importation."
The numbers back that up, at least on the surface.
A Market Reshuffled in Weeks
According to the regulator's February 2026 market fact sheet, local refineries delivered about 36.5 million litres of petrol per day, while imports accounted for only about three million litres daily. This brings Nigeria's total petrol supply to roughly 39.5 million litres per day, meaning domestic production now represents about 92 percent of the country's supply.
The contrast with the previous month is stark. In January 2026, petrol imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited averaged 24.8 million litres per day, while domestic refineries supplied 40.1 million litres per day, pushing total daily supply to 64.9 million litres.
That gap, 25.4 million litres per day, essentially vanished once the import tap was turned off. Daily petrol consumption dropped to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, compared to 60.2 million litres recorded in January.
Using a conservative estimate of ₦1,000 ($0.72) per litre, Nigeria's daily petrol consumption translates to an annual market value of more than ₦14.4 trillion ($10.3 billion), making it one of the largest fuel markets in Africa.
A Long Time Coming
This shift highlights a stronger intent by Nigerian authorities to protect domestic refining and marks a win for the Dangote Refinery, which last year sued the regulator and the state oil company to force a halt to imports.
Aliko Dangote, the billionaire who controls the refinery, had long insisted the facility could carry the country's entire fuel load. He maintained that although the refinery can produce up to 75 million litres of petrol daily, some market participants were still bringing in imported products, a situation he said may ultimately affect the country's energy security.
The privately owned Dangote refinery says it is operating at nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, enough to meet domestic needs. It is the world's largest single-train refinery.
Prices Are Not Falling
Despite the refinery's output milestone, Nigerian motorists are not seeing relief at the pump. The Dangote refinery's chief executive, David Bird, said during a media chat on March 9 that petrol prices may not decline even at full capacity.
Bird explained that the refinery operates within the international commodities market, which directly influences the cost of crude oil and refined products. According to him, the refinery purchases crude oil at global benchmark prices, including crude sourced locally under the crude-for-naira programme.
Market checks show petrol selling between ₦1,130 and ₦1,150 ($0.81 to $0.82) per litre at many filling stations. Pump prices in Nigeria have risen by more than 54 percent since the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, sending crude oil prices sharply higher in international markets.
War in Iran is disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor handling about a fifth of global supply, forcing exporters to halt shipments and triggering price spikes.
Monopoly Fears Are Growing
The policy shift has split opinion down the middle in Nigeria's energy community. Supporters say the country has finally broken its dependence on imported refined petroleum products. Critics worry about what happens when a single supplier controls a critical national commodity.
Energy economist Wumi Iledare described the suspension of petrol imports as a strong policy signal but cautioned that abrupt regulatory shifts can encourage strategic behaviour among market players, including precautionary stockpiling and opportunistic pricing across the distribution network.
Energy law expert Dayo Ayoade said Nigeria's heavy reliance on the Dangote refinery reflects structural gaps in refining capacity rather than deliberate market control by the company. He explained that regulators still have the legal authority under the Petroleum Industry Act to monitor competition and intervene if necessary, and expressed optimism that the market could become more competitive as additional refining projects gradually come on stream.
Industry stakeholder Jeremiah Olatide suggested a mixed supply model as the safer path forward, arguing that a structure where about 70 percent of petrol demand is met locally and 30 percent through imports could provide greater stability while keeping competitive pressure alive.
Labour groups have weighed in too. The Nigeria Labour Congress warned that a single dominant supplier in such a strategic sector could expose consumers to price pressure if oversight weakens. The union's Assistant Secretary-General Christopher Onyeka said competition remains essential in preventing excessive pricing power in any economy.
An anonymous industry operator put it more bluntly: "The price of imported petrol was lower than the locally produced petrol from the refinery. This tells you that it won't be right to allow a monopoly in the downstream. It won't be in the interest of the country."
The Regulator's Defense
The NMDPRA has not backed down from its position. Its chief executive, Saidu Mohammed, said the country must protect the gains made through domestic refining rather than return to the old cycle of heavy petrol imports.
CORAN spokesperson Eche Idoko welcomed the regulator's stance, saying the challenge now is to sustain the momentum. His association had pushed for years to get the government to stop issuing import permits that they argued undercut local refiners' profit margins.
Nigeria's petroleum sector has cycled through several phases, from early domestic refining to the decline of state-owned facilities, and then decades of near-total dependence on imported fuel. What is happening now may represent another inflection point, though whether it leads to genuine energy independence or a different kind of vulnerability will depend largely on how regulators manage the months ahead.
