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Patrice Motsepe keeps saying he wants nothing to do with politics. The polling numbers tell a different story.
The billionaire mining magnate and African Rainbow Minerals founder has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the African National Congress, according to political analyst Frans Cronje, whose Social Research Foundation tracks sentiment across South Africa's political landscape.
"Motsepe's numbers are a rocket ship that is taking off for him," Cronje said during a discussion on The Common Sense podcast. "His numbers are immensely strong. The numbers are so strong that it would be suicidal for the ANC to go for anyone else."
Cronje's comments came days after Motsepe addressed the issue directly at African Rainbow Minerals' financial results briefing on March 7, where he described the rumors linking him to the 2027 ANC leadership race as "false and unfounded." He said he is not part of any political campaign and remains focused on his business interests and the broader South African economy.
He has made similar statements before. When major newspaper editors pressed him on the question years ago, Motsepe said he didn't need to enter politics to make a contribution to the country. He said he preferred to keep working with all political parties across the board.
Motsepe also pushed back on suggestions that his recent resignation as executive chairman and employee of ARM signaled a political run in the making. He said the move was required to satisfy Johannesburg Stock Exchange rules, which prohibit a listed company's chief executive and chair from being the same person.
Analysts aren't fully buying the denial. Cronje noted that Motsepe couldn't have announced political ambitions at a corporate results briefing without turning it into a political platform, which would have violated ANC norms around self-promotion ahead of any official nomination. He also dismissed Motsepe's suggestion that the PM27 lobby group could stand for anything other than what its own website makes plain: a coordinated push to install Motsepe at the top of the ruling party.
Cronje said that if Motsepe's team sees a clear path to victory through the ANC conference scheduled for December 2027, he will run and likely win.
The potential upside, analysts say, is significant. Cronje predicts a Motsepe presidency could push the ANC back above a 50% national majority and restore economic growth to levels South Africa hasn't seen in close to two decades, with momentum building by the early 2030s.
Others share that view. Peter Major, a mining analyst at Modern Corporate Solutions, said Motsepe has the ability to significantly change the fortunes of South Africa's struggling mining sector if he gets into power.
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at Efficient Group, was more direct. "That is probably the single best move that the ANC can make," he said. Roodt contrasted Motsepe sharply with other potential contenders, including Paul Mashatile and Fikile Mbalula, saying he has no confidence in either.
Motsepe currently serves as president of the Confederation of African Football and remains the driving force behind Mamelodi Sundowns, one of the continent's most decorated soccer clubs. Whether he adds South African president to that list remains, at least officially, an open question.
