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Aliko Dangote's refinery is doing more than processing crude. It's beginning to rewrite Nigeria's economic story.
The Central Bank of Nigeria reported that the country's overall balance of payments posted a $4.23 billion surplus in 2025, driven in large part by the Dangote Refinery's growing role in the nation's petroleum trade and a sustained flood of diaspora remittances. The figures are contained in the CBN's 2025 Annual Balance of Payment Highlights, released this week.
At the center of the turnaround is a goods account that generated a $14.51 billion surplus last year, up 10.17 percent from 2024 despite a 14.41 percent drop in crude oil export earnings, which fell to $31.54 billion. The refinery, which has been ramping up operations along Nigeria's southwest coast, contributed $5.85 billion in refined petroleum exports during the period.
The downstream effect was just as striking. With locally refined fuel available in quantity, Nigeria's import bill for petroleum products collapsed, falling 28.88 percent to $10.00 billion from $14.06 billion the year before. The CBN credited the refinery directly, saying its output "led to a substantial decline in fuel imports."
That's exactly the argument Dangote and his backers have made since the refinery's delayed opening. A country that had long exported crude only to import expensive finished fuel was finally beginning to capture more value within its own borders.
Remittances added another pillar of support. Diaspora inflows reached $21.76 billion in 2025, helping keep the secondary income account at $23.20 billion even as other parts of the current account came under pressure.
The current account surplus came in at $14.04 billion, a solid number though down from $19.03 billion in 2024. Still, it was more than double the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023, a sign that the structural improvements in trade are holding even as other pressures build.
Those pressures are real. The services account deficit widened to $14.58 billion on the back of higher spending on transportation, travel and insurance. The primary income account recorded a 60.9 percent spike in net outflows, reaching $9.09 billion, as dividend and interest payments to foreign direct and portfolio investors climbed sharply.
On the financial account, Nigeria shifted to a net borrowing position of $1.69 billion, reversing the net lending recorded in 2024. Direct investment liabilities surged 149.1 percent to $4.01 billion, pointing to fresh foreign capital entering the country. Portfolio investment told a more cautious story, declining 48.3 percent to $8.04 billion as global investors stayed measured.
Taken together, the data suggests Nigeria is still navigating real structural vulnerabilities but is increasingly propped up by a refinery that was once written off as a pipe dream, and by millions of Nigerians abroad who keep sending money home regardless of what the macroeconomic readings say.
