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Patrice Motsepe has emerged as the dominant figure in South Africa's ANC leadership race despite his repeated insistence that he has no interest in politics, after a new survey placed the mining billionaire far ahead of all potential candidates in public favourability.
Poll puts Motsepe far ahead as rivals face baggage
The Social Research Foundation poll, conducted among 2,222 respondents in March 2026, gave Motsepe a 33.1 percent favourability rating, equivalent to the combined scores of his two nearest rivals. Secretary-general Fikile Mbalula followed at 22 percent and deputy president Paul Mashatile at 11.4 percent. Motsepe's negative rating of 22.3 percent was also sharply lower than Mbalula's 37.7 percent and Mashatile's 35 percent, underscoring how far the business leader has stayed clear of the controversies dogging his rivals.
Foundation analyst Frans Cronje described the numbers as exceptional, saying no other ANC candidate could hope to catch Motsepe if a serious campaign was mounted behind those figures. Among ANC voters specifically, Motsepe commanded 47 percent support compared with 19 percent for Mbalula and 16 percent for Mashatile.
The PM27 campaign and Motsepe's repeated denials
Despite the poll numbers, Motsepe has publicly rejected any suggestion that he intends to run. At African Rainbow Minerals' most recent results presentation, he told shareholders he had no interest in political office and preferred to contribute through business and philanthropy, working with all political parties rather than aligning with one.
A grassroots campaign called PM27 Savumelana has nonetheless been building support structures across South Africa's provinces, though its organisers insist Motsepe has no direct involvement. Campaign organiser Ishmael Mnisi said the initiative is a self-funded effort committed to ANC renewal, and that formal campaigning for Motsepe's candidacy would not begin until the party officially opened the lobbying process ahead of its 2027 elective conference. The ANC has cautioned its members against early campaigning and reaffirmed that leadership discussions must take place within party processes.
Contrast with rivals sharpens Motsepe's standing
The distance between Motsepe and his rivals has been a quiet driver of his numbers. Mbalula has rejected allegations linking him to corruption, fraud and money laundering, stating he has neither been charged nor prosecuted. Mashatile has faced scrutiny after testimony before a commission of inquiry linked his name to individuals involved in disputed dealings, which he has denied.
Motsepe carries none of that baggage. The founder of African Rainbow Minerals, which holds interests across gold, ferrous metals, base metals and platinum, has built a reputation as one of South Africa's most credible private-sector figures. His tenure as president of the Confederation of African Football, which saw revenue surge 90 percent, has only added to his standing beyond the boardroom. With the ANC's 2027 elective conference approaching, the question is no longer whether Motsepe has the numbers. It is whether a man who has spent his career saying no to politics can be persuaded to say yes.
