Karl Toriola steers MTN Nigeria to a ₦1.5 trillion Q1 record

MTN Nigeria Communications Plc's post-devaluation recovery has hardened into a rally. The country's largest telecommunications operator reported first-quarter profit of ₦355.5 billion, up 165.9 percent year-on-year, on its strongest quarterly revenue since 2019. The print pushed its market value to ₦18.3 trillion on April 30, the highest of any stock on the Nigerian Exchange and a milestone Karl Toriola, chief executive officer, has been chasing for two years.

A revenue line back at full stretch

Service revenue climbed 41.8 percent to a record ₦1.5 trillion in the three months ended March 31. Profit before tax jumped 169.6 percent to ₦546.4 billion, and earnings per share more than doubled to ₦16.95 from ₦6.37 a year earlier.

Data revenue rose 56.2 percent on a 9.5 percent gain in active data subscribers to 55 million and a 5.5-percentage-point lift in smartphone penetration to 66.2 percent. Average usage per subscriber climbed 12.3 percent to 14.3 gigabytes. Voice revenue, the line that has been giving way to data for years, still grew 22.5 percent.

The most arresting print is fintech. Reported fintech revenue rose 77.9 percent. Stripped of the suspended Xtratime airtime-credit service, core fintech revenue almost tripled, climbing 190.6 percent on higher deposit balances, stronger adoption of advanced products and rising interest income. Total subscribers reached 89.5 million, up 6.5 percent.

A confident capex bet

Capital expenditure excluding leases rose 92.8 percent to ₦390.3 billion. With the balance sheet still digesting devaluation impairments, the decision to nearly double quarterly capex is a clear vote that data demand will keep absorbing whatever capacity gets built. Traffic grew 22.9 percent in the quarter alone.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization grew 68.1 percent to ₦828.3 billion, with the margin widening 8.7 percentage points to 55.3 percent. The company posted a net foreign-exchange gain of ₦33.3 billion, reversing a ₦5.5 billion loss a year earlier, and trimmed total borrowings 25 percent to ₦315 billion after a ₦154 billion loan repayment.

Toriola flagged diesel as the swing factor. With Lagos ex-depot prices averaging ₦2,000 a liter in the second half, the company estimates a 1.8 to 2 percentage-point hit to full-year EBITDA margin. Guidance held steady at service-revenue growth of at least the low 20 percent range and EBITDA margins in the mid-to-high 50 percent band.

Crown back, dividend pressure rising

The market response was emphatic. Shares closed at ₦870 on April 30, gaining more than 6 percent in a single session and bringing year-to-date returns to 70.6 percent. The rally cemented MTN Nigeria's spot at the top of the NGX market-cap table.

The Q1 number puts shareholder returns squarely back on the agenda. After paying ₦20 per share for 2025, its first dividend since 2023, MTN Nigeria already has a first-quarter earnings per share figure equal to nearly 30 percent of last year's full-year total. If the run rate holds, the 2026 distribution will be uncomfortable for management to keep modest.