American billionaire Elon Musk says SpaceX revenue could pass $500 billion by 2027

American billionaire Elon Musk said SpaceX is likely to be bringing in revenue at an annual rate of more than $500 billion by December 2027, a forecast well beyond anything Wall Street analysts expect from the rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company.

"It seems quite likely that our ARR in Dec 2027 will exceed $500B," Musk said at the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Nov. 6, referring to annual recurring revenue. "This is not a promise, this is my best guess." He said a $1 trillion figure was not out of the question.

SpaceX shares rose 6.6% to $131.45 on Friday, recovering part of the ground lost in a two-day slide after Tuesday's midterm elections. The stock is still below the $135 price at which SpaceX went public in June.

Far ahead of Wall Street

The 37 analysts who cover SpaceX expect revenue of about $180 billion on average in 2027, with estimates ranging from about $72 billion to $290 billion. Those forecasts are for the full year, while Musk's figure is the rate SpaceX would be earning in its final month, multiplied out over 12 months. Even so, his floor is about $210 billion above the most bullish estimate.

It is also a steep climb from where the company is now. SpaceX reported revenue of $14.6 billion for the third quarter, up 161% from a year earlier, which works out to about $58 billion a year. Musk has said he expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow about 70% from the third quarter, which would put it near $25 billion. Analysts on average expect $22.9 billion.

Musk first floated the $500 billion to $1 trillion range in October, after SpaceX's quarterly results. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has said he expects annual recurring revenue to reach $100 billion by the end of this year.

Most of the growth is coming from AI. SpaceX's AI business, built on the xAI startup it absorbed in February, brought in $7.6 billion in the third quarter, up 830% from a year earlier and more than the Starlink satellite internet and launch businesses combined. The unit posted an operating profit of $431 million after losing $1.26 billion in the previous quarter. Anthropic, which rents computing power from SpaceX's Colossus data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, accounted for 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, or about $5 billion. Either company can end those agreements with 90 days' notice once the initial commitment periods run out in early 2027.

Starlink revenue rose 69% to $5.2 billion in the quarter, and the service had 13.6 million consumer subscribers.

Government work shrinks

Musk also said U.S. government contracts would make up less than 10% of SpaceX's fourth-quarter revenue, down from 16.6% in the third quarter. He expects that share to fall below 5% within a year. Government agencies accounted for roughly 20% of the company's revenue in 2025.

He offered on X to cancel any government contracts that officials no longer want. "Just say the word," he wrote.

The remarks come as SpaceX faces closer scrutiny in Washington after Democrats won control of Congress on Tuesday. Musk spent more than $445 million backing Republican causes in this election cycle. A falling government share reflects how fast SpaceX's commercial business is growing and does not necessarily mean federal payments are shrinking.

A $1.7 trillion company

SpaceX is valued at about $1.7 trillion. It raised about $86 billion in its June initial public offering, the largest on record, and has agreed to lease about $40 billion of Nvidia Corp. AI chips through a vehicle backed by Apollo Global Management Inc.

Musk, 55, founded SpaceX in 2002 and also runs Tesla Inc. He is the world's richest person, and his SpaceX shares make up the largest part of his fortune.