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Adrian Gore has warned that South Africa risks squandering a rare reform window, saying renewed business confidence and improving government cooperation could be undone by policy mistakes and weak execution.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Discovery founder said global politics and technology are tightening the margin for error. He pointed to Donald Trump’s return to the centre of global politics and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence as forces reshaping boardroom decisions worldwide, and argued South Africa needs to stay disciplined to benefit from the current shift in sentiment.
Gore said the mood around South Africa has improved in recent months, helped by better cooperation between business and the Government of National Unity and early signs of progress on long delayed reforms. He described the optimism as tentative, the kind that can turn quickly if the country sends the wrong signals.
He pointed to an external vote of confidence late last year when S&P Global delivered South Africa’s first credit rating upgrade in two decades. That lift has fed expectations in the market that other agencies could follow if reforms keep moving and fiscal credibility holds.
His central message was simple: keep the agenda focused on growth, jobs and execution, and do not allow politics to distract from the work. In a world that is increasingly transactional and self interested, he said, South Africa must be careful not to do “foolish things” that could trigger investor doubt or trade retaliation.
The warning comes with the numbers still stuck in low gear. South Africa’s growth outlook remains modest, with forecasts hovering around 1 to 2 per cent in the near term. Some estimates suggest growth could lift towards 3 per cent by 2030 if reforms stick, but that would require sustained improvement in electricity supply, logistics performance, municipal services and the broader investment climate.
Economists say the country has spent much of the past decade in a holding pattern. Growth seldom rose above 2 per cent for long stretches, aside from the rebound after the pandemic shock. Over the same period, the economy absorbed repeated blows, including state capture, the Covid 19 disruption, the July 2021 unrest and damaging floods in 2022.
Population growth has also diluted the gains. Even when the economy expands, per capita income struggles to rise meaningfully when the growth rate is barely ahead of the population trend. That reality explains the impatience in households and the pressure on policymakers to deliver improvements people can actually feel, not just numbers that look better on paper.
External risk sits alongside domestic constraint. Trade access to the United States, including questions around the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, remains politically sensitive and can shift with Washington’s mood. Exporters are also watching tariff risk and diplomatic tensions, which can quickly spill into economic consequences in an era where trade is used as leverage.
A slowdown in China would add another headwind. China is a major buyer of commodities and an important trading partner, and weaker demand there would hit prices and volumes that support local revenue, jobs and investment.
Inside South Africa, the reform list is no secret. Electricity reliability, freight rail and ports, water infrastructure and local government performance sit at the centre of any credible growth plan. Business has been pushing for faster implementation and clearer accountability, particularly on projects that unlock private capital and improve delivery.
Lower interest rates could help at the margin. The Reserve Bank is expected by some analysts to cut rates further during 2026 if inflation stays contained, easing pressure on consumers and reducing funding costs for investment. That said, rate cuts cannot substitute for fixing the basics.
