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Aliko Dangote built his refinery to end Nigeria's dependence on imported fuel. It is now helping Europe keep its planes in the air.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has emerged as one of Europe's most critical alternative jet fuel suppliers as the ongoing US-Iran war effectively shuts off tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has historically funneled close to 40% of Europe's aviation fuel imports. With those flows severed, buyers across the continent are turning to Nigeria at a pace that is breaking records.
April shipments of jet fuel from Nigeria to Europe have reached approximately 66,000 barrels per day, the highest level ever recorded, according to data from Kpler and LSEG. The Dangote refinery is the engine behind that number. The facility, which began operations in late 2023 and runs at its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel across 2025. It is currently producing an estimated 20 million liters of Jet A-1 fuel daily and has already delivered cargoes to the United Kingdom's Milford Haven port, its first confirmed aviation fuel shipment to Britain.
The crisis driving that demand is severe. The International Energy Agency estimates Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining. Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe have surged to about $1,744 per tonne, nearly double pre-war levels. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 21% of total global seaborne jet fuel supply, and the usual backup options are not available. China and South Korea have tightened export restrictions to protect their own domestic markets. Indian supply, particularly from the Jamnagar refinery, has been further complicated by EU sanctions on oil products processed from Russian crude.
That leaves the Atlantic Basin, primarily the United States and West Africa, as Europe's most realistic replacement source. The US is already exporting at record levels, with the week ending April 3 seeing an estimated 442,000 barrels of jet fuel shipped out, double last year's weekly average. But analysts at Kpler have been direct: even with both the US and the Dangote refinery running hard, available volumes are unlikely to fully replace what Europe has lost from the Gulf.
The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol has warned that flight cancellations are coming "soon" if Middle East supplies are not restored. KLM has already moved, cutting 160 flights over the coming month, focused on short European routes where passengers can be rebooked on alternatives. Air France-KLM made that decision despite having hedged 87% of its fuel exposure, an illustration of how severe the cost pressure has become.
The irony for Nigeria is that as Dangote's refinery helps stabilize aviation markets abroad, domestic airlines are being squeezed by a 270% spike in local jet fuel prices since February, prompting carriers to threaten a suspension of operations from April 20 unless prices are reduced.
Dangote himself acknowledged the competing pressures, noting publicly that the refinery has nearly exhausted its aviation fuel and diesel stocks, with gasoline remaining the product in surplus. The refinery is running. The question is who gets the fuel first.
A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed last week broke down over the weekend, with indirect talks brokered by Pakistan still continuing. Brent crude remains more than 30% above pre-war levels. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Europe's aviation sector will keep looking south.
