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Three jet fuel cargoes from Aliko Dangote's mega-refinery in Nigeria are currently en route to Europe, stepping into a supply gap that the head of the International Energy Agency says could leave the continent's airlines grounded within weeks.
Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, warned on Wednesday that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining after the Iran war effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and severed the traditional flow of kerosene from Middle Eastern refineries. The shortfall has sent jet fuel prices to record levels and forced European carriers to impose surcharges and trim summer schedules.
Dangote's $20 billion plant on the outskirts of Lagos reached its full 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity just weeks before the Hormuz disruption began, giving Africa's richest man what analysts described as a greater advantage in a market starved of alternatives. The refinery benefits from access to Nigerian crude purchased at a discount to international benchmarks, a cost edge that makes its jet fuel competitive in European spot markets even after freight charges.
Tracking data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler confirmed the three Nigerian cargoes, though analysts cautioned that the additional volumes cover only about half of the lost Middle Eastern supply at most. The remaining shortfall is being sourced primarily from US Gulf Coast refineries, which face their own logistics constraints ahead of the American summer driving season.
The jet fuel crisis marks a new chapter in Dangote's evolution from a regional fuel supplier into a swing producer with global relevance. His refinery already turned Nigeria into a net petrol exporter for the first time in March, when the plant shipped roughly 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline while imports fell to a record low.
Dangote reinforced his refinery's strategic positioning this week during bilateral meetings at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, where he sat down separately with World Bank president Ajay Banga, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and US Export-Import Bank chairman John Jovanovic to discuss investment flows into Nigeria's energy and industrial sectors.
