President Paul Kagame says Rwanda wants a stake in Dangote's $16 billion Kenyan refinery

Rwanda's President Paul Kagame has confirmed his country is in discussions about acquiring a stake in Aliko Dangote's planned $16 billion oil refinery in Lamu, Kenya, adding another East African government to the growing list of regional partners being courted for the project, which is targeting the start of construction between September and October, subject to regulatory approvals.

Speaking at a press conference in Kigali on Monday, Kagame said talks were real but preliminary. "In a way, there has been. But it is too early to talk about the details because I think it is work in progress.

Things are still being thought out," he said, responding to questions about media reports that Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia had been offered a combined 30% regional stake valued at approximately $1.5 billion.

"What I can say is that Rwanda would be very happy to be part of that kind of investment," Kagame added.

The comments align with disclosures made last week by David Ndii, economic adviser to Kenya's President William Ruto, who confirmed at the Mwango Capital Markets Forum in Nairobi that Kenya had been offered a 10% stake worth approximately $500 million, with Ethiopia and Rwanda being invited to take up the remainder of the regional allocation. Ndii put Kenya's proposed investment at KSh64.7 billion ($500 million) and the total regional package at KSh194.2 billion ($1.5 billion).

The planned Lamu facility would process up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, matching the nameplate capacity of Dangote's flagship Lagos refinery, and is designed to serve the broader East African market by supplying refined petroleum products across Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Ethiopia and beyond. The refinery itself is estimated to cost approximately $16 billion, with the broader project including port infrastructure and petrochemical facilities bringing the total to around $20 billion.

Construction is expected to take between three and five years once it begins. Dangote said on Aug. 8 that construction would start by October 2026, with preparations already at an advanced stage. Kenya's economic adviser Ndii subsequently indicated a September start was possible, though both timelines remain subject to regulatory clearance.

Kagame's expression of interest strengthens the political architecture around a project that will need regional government support to secure the crude supply, market access and policy protection Dangote has said are essential to making the economics work. He has called on host governments to protect the refinery from competition from cheaper imported petroleum products, particularly from Russia and India, and to provide land, regional financing and a stable regulatory framework.

East Africa currently imports virtually all of its refined petroleum needs despite holding significant crude oil reserves across South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya. The Lamu refinery, if built at the scale Dangote is proposing, would fundamentally alter that dependence by creating a large-scale refining hub on the Kenyan coast capable of supplying the entire region.

Dangote's Lagos refinery has already demonstrated the model. Since beginning operations in 2024, the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility has become a major source of refined fuel for Nigeria and has expanded exports to African and European markets, overtaking American suppliers to become Europe's largest source of jet fuel earlier this year.

A second large-scale refinery in East Africa would extend Dangote Industries' influence across Africa's downstream petroleum industry and position Dangote Group as the continent's dominant force in both refining capacity and refined fuel distribution.