Patrice Motsepe's African Rainbow Minerals profit jumped twelve-fold to $248 million

African Rainbow Minerals reported profit attributable to shareholders of 3.998 billion rand for the year to June 30, about $247.7 million at 16.14 rand to the dollar, up from 330 million rand a year earlier.

That is a twelve-fold increase, and it comes with a turnaround at every level of the income statement. Revenue rose 25.3% to 16.323 billion rand, roughly $1.01 billion. Gross profit reached 4.397 billion rand, about $272.4 million, against a gross loss of 190 million the previous year. Profit from operations before capital items came to 3.162 billion rand, some $195.9 million, reversing a loss of 567 million.

Headline earnings per share rose 20.4% to 1,660 cents from 1,379 cents.

The board declared a final dividend of 700 cents a share gross, up from 600 cents, with a total payout of about 1.461 billion rand, roughly $90.5 million.

ARM is the diversified mining group Patrice Motsepe founded, and its central asset is a half share of Assmang, the iron ore and manganese producer it owns jointly with Desmond Sacco's Assore. It also mines platinum group metals, chrome, coal, copper and nickel, and holds a stake in Harmony Gold.

The recovery follows a difficult year. ARM's headline earnings fell 47% in the previous financial year, to 2.7 billion rand from 5.1 billion, and the company cut its final dividend from 900 cents to 600.

What the outlook statement describes is a market where prices moved on costs rather than on demand.

Iron ore rallied and then fell during the first half of 2026, driven by fuel and freight costs rather than fundamentals. Conflict between the United States and Iran pushed bunker and shipping rates up, and a memorandum of understanding in late June eased fears over the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing the risk premium and pulling prices back to pre-war levels. With that support gone, ARM says weak fundamentals now dominate, including ample supply, record Chinese imports in May, elevated port stocks and structurally flat global demand. It expects softer prices and compressed premiums for high-grade ore to weigh on South African exporters.

Manganese followed the same pattern. Costs rose with oil and diesel prices, particularly for trucking ore to South African ports, then eased as the pressure faded. South African exports have been strong on recovering Transnet rail performance and better trucking capacity, while Chinese imports have exceeded demand and pushed port stocks higher. Lower Chinese steel output is cutting ferroalloy production and manganese requirements, leaving parts of the market oversupplied. ARM calls the short-term outlook bearish.

The platinum group metals picture is more constructive. Amended European legislation requiring a 90% emissions cut rather than an outright ban on internal combustion engines from 2035 should extend the life of autocatalysts. ARM expects industrial platinum demand to grow through glass and hard disc drives, palladium to benefit from a widening gold-to-palladium ratio and data-centre electrical substitution, and rhodium demand to compound at 2.5% a year to 2040. Primary supply is forecast to decline as South African Merensky and UG2 shafts deplete and investment lags.

Thermal coal rose through the second quarter as Middle East conflict lifted liquefied natural gas prices and made gas-to-coal switching economic, then eased as the Strait of Hormuz reopened. ARM describes the market as in structural decline with short-term resilience, and expects subdued prices over the medium term.

The company says it remains optimistic about the medium to long term, pointing to long-life assets and a focus on productivity, cost efficiency and disciplined capital allocation.