US to strip South Africa of duty-free access on $1.7 billion of exports

The U.S. will suspend South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, ending duty-free access to the American market for exports that earned South Africa about $1.7 billion last year.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Nov. 2 that President Donald Trump had found the two governments were "engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria." Trump notified Congress and both governments, and the removal takes effect on Jan. 1, 2027.

AGOA, passed in 2000, lets eligible sub-Saharan African countries ship more than 1,800 products to the U.S. without paying import duties. South Africa has been its largest beneficiary over the past 25 years, accounting for 54% of all exports to the U.S. under the programme. Its AGOA shipments are mainly vehicles and parts, citrus and other farm products, and wine.

Why Washington acted

The U.S. cited barriers to American trade and investment in South Africa, corruption, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. In a letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump said South Africa "maintains significant tariff and non-tariff barriers that affect United States trade." For Rwanda, Washington pointed to trade barriers, the rule of law and human rights. Rwanda lost duty-free benefits for its clothing exports in 2018 after it raised duties on imported second-hand clothes. Its main exports to the U.S. are coffee, tea and minerals.

The decision follows months of strain between Washington and Pretoria. The Trump administration has accused South Africa's government of persecuting white citizens, a claim Pretoria rejects as false, and has objected to South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, which Israel denies.

U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell called the removal "a predictable and preventable outcome."

South Africa's response

Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said the government was prepared for the decision. "This decision does not define the broader relationship between South Africa and the United States," he said in a statement on Nov. 3.

Tau said South Africa had offered concessions beyond those agreed in 2015, and that the U.S. had raised new issues outside the scope of talks that began in 2025. South Africa has 60 days to address Washington's concerns before the suspension takes effect, and Tau said the government would keep negotiating for a trade agreement that goes beyond AGOA. He also said South Africa would continue to uphold "its constitutional responsibilities," a line widely read as a rejection of U.S. demands that it exempt American investors from black economic empowerment rules.

"Government recognises the concern that this decision may create for workers, exporters, businesses," Tau said, adding that the impact would differ by sector.

The government's figures show how much the programme had already shrunk as a share of trade. AGOA exports fell to about $1.7 billion in 2025 from $4 billion in 2024, and made up about 10% of South Africa's shipments to the U.S., down from 28%. About 89% entered under standard World Trade Organization terms. Total trade between the two countries reached $28.8 billion last year, and more than 600 American companies operate in South Africa, employing about 134,600 people.

Citrus and wine growers exposed

The heaviest damage is expected on farms in the Western and Northern Cape. Gerrit van der Merwe, chairman of the Citrus Growers' Association, said job losses would fall on areas "where entire communities depend on SA-US trade." South Africa ships citrus to the U.S. during the American off-season.

Exporters in the Western Cape were already losing ground. Shipments from the province to the U.S. dropped 41% to R10.02 billion ($604 million) in the 12 months to July 2026, from R16.89 billion ($1.02 billion) a year earlier, according to Exporters Western Cape. Citrus sales fell 17% to R1.82 billion ($110 million), wine fell 38% to R371 million ($22 million), and fruit juices fell 86%. The group said exports to the U.S. support 11,914 direct jobs in the province.

Wandile Sihlobo, South Africa's presidential envoy on agriculture and land, said some South African products now enter the U.S. at a 12.5% tariff, which would rise to about 15.9% without AGOA. That is still below the 30% tariff South Africa faced after Trump's April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs, and Sihlobo said the effect was unlikely to be catastrophic. The U.S. takes about 4% of South Africa's agricultural exports.

Carmakers may feel less of a change. Vehicles, steel and aluminium already face U.S. tariffs of 25% to 50%, which are larger than the AGOA preference, and economist Eckart Naumann said the auto industry was unlikely to be affected.

Johann Rupert, the chairman of Swiss luxury group Richemont and South Africa's richest person, warned in November 2024 that the country could not afford to lose the programme. "Our automobile industry, our farmers, our exports," he said at a forum in Stellenbosch, "we will have a serious blow to the economy if we lose AGOA." Rupert said at the time he would use "whatever little influence I have" to keep South Africa in the pact.

Ramaphosa has said South Africa is seeking new markets and has signed trade deals with other partners, including China. Tau said new markets had opened for South African citrus, avocados, grapes and apples.

Rand figures were converted at R16.6 to the dollar.