Aliko Dangote reveals a 20,000MW power project and makes a $20 billion dividend promise in a wide-ranging conversation with IFC

Aliko Dangote used a sit-down interview at the International Finance Corporation's Washington headquarters to unveil a 20,000-megawatt power generation programme, promise African investors up to $25 billion in dividends from his planned pan-African stock market listing and confirm that his Lagos refinery was tested at 661,000 barrels per day during commissioning, exceeding its 650,000-barrel nameplate capacity.

The conversation with IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop, published by CNBC Africa on May 6, was the most detailed public account yet of where Dangote intends to deploy the cash flows now being generated by the refinery and what African retail investors can expect when the pan-African listing proceeds.

The 20,000MW power ambition

The power project is the most significant new disclosure in the interview. Dangote did not elaborate on financing, timelines or the mix of generation technologies, but a 20,000MW buildout would dwarf anything a private company has yet attempted in Nigerian or African power generation. Nigeria's total installed generation capacity currently sits at approximately 13,000MW, of which only a fraction is reliably available to the grid at any given time. A 20,000MW private addition to the system would represent a structural transformation of the country's electricity supply.

Dangote framed the power project alongside fertiliser, agriculture, a planned deep-sea port with an 80-metre draft and LNG infrastructure as the components of a post-refinery investment push driven by the cash flows the refinery is now generating. "We have now actually freed up our assets and we can actually raise more money. Our cash flow now is very, very strong," he told Diop.

The dividend promise and the IPO architecture

The refinery listing has been anticipated for months. What the IFC interview added was the fullest articulation yet of the financial structure Dangote has in mind and the scale of returns he is promising to African investors.

He said Dangote Group's full portfolio of current and planned investments would eventually generate $100 billion in revenue annually, with EBITDA of $30 billion to $35 billion. On the basis of that earnings profile and assuming continuation of the very high dividend ratios the group pays at operating company level, he said a 25% stake sale through the pan-African listing could ultimately deliver $20 billion to $25 billion in dividends to shareholders.

"Can you imagine if we have, let's say we will sell 25%... you are actually going to inject billions of dollars into the hands of all these Africans," he said. "Do you know what that can do? It's a life changing event."

He also confirmed that dividends from the listing will be calculated and paid in US dollars, with investors given the option to receive payment in naira, South African rand or any other currency of their choice. The dollar denomination is a meaningful structural reassurance for African retail investors who have historically avoided pan-African assets because of currency risk and the difficulty of converting and repatriating investment returns.

He made one personal disclosure that adds context to the scale of what he is offering shareholders: Dangote Industries, the parent holding company, has never paid him or any other shareholder a single dividend since the business began. "I've never taken dividend, not one dime out of the company since when we started. Everything has been reinvested back into the business. That's why we were able to grow." The listing is the moment he ends that practice.

The refinery in numbers

The refinery's operational status received a fresh confirmation and a new data point. Dangote said the facility had been tested at 661,000 barrels per day, above the 650,000-barrel nameplate capacity, and had been running stably at 650,000 barrels per day for 2 consecutive months with every department operational.

He also disclosed, in what he framed as a somewhat personal admission, that when he began planning the refinery he had never dealt in crude oil before. "I have never, ever seen crude oil in my life. Never. I always avoided crude oil because for us in Nigeria, once you say that you are in oil, it's a dirty business. And I wanted to do a clean business." What drove him to build was watching Nigeria export 2.4 million barrels of crude per day while importing every single petroleum product it consumed.

Fertiliser and the Congo minerals play

On fertiliser, Dangote disclosed an expansion target that significantly exceeds any figures previously stated publicly. He said the group is targeting 12 million tonnes of urea production capacity, alongside new mines for potash and phosphate in Congo-Brazzaville. The addition of potash and phosphate mining would give the group control over the raw material inputs for multiple fertiliser categories, not just urea. He said the group expects to be the largest fertiliser company in the world within approximately 2 and a half years.

The 38-visa problem and African Renaissance

Dangote used the Washington platform to make the case for the African Renaissance Group, a coalition of major African business leaders he assembled to advocate for free movement of people, goods and services across the continent.

"I need 38 visas to move around. How do I now invest, if I'm not able to move around? I mean 38 visas? It doesn't make sense."

He said shipping a cargo from Lagos to Accra costs more than shipping it from Spain to Lagos, and that flights between West African capitals can cost $600. Both figures, he argued, are structural barriers to the regional integration that would allow African industrialists to build at continental scale. Diop is a member of the African Renaissance Group and committed IFC's continued support for the initiative.

Where it began

Diop asked Dangote to describe the personal journey that produced the industrial empire. He started selling 4 trucks of cement per day using 500,000 naira, which at the time was equivalent to $500,000, borrowed from his grandfather. He returned the money 3 months later. His first import licence, in 1981, was for 5,000 tonnes of sugar.

The IFC, he noted, financed Dangote's first major external funding round in 2005 with $478 million on a 7-year loan. His group repaid it in 18 months. "And you took also risks on us," he told Diop. The relationship, he said, is entering a new phase as the refinery's success opens the next chapter of pan-African industrialisation and IFC positions itself as a co-architect of that expansion.