Dangote refinery defends $49bn value against $16bn US rival

David Bird, chief executive of the Lagos refinery owned by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, has defended the roughly $49 billion valuation investors are being asked to accept in Africa's largest share sale, arguing that comparisons with cheaper international refiners measure the wrong things.

Analysts have set the refinery against listed peers of similar size. HF Sinclair, a US refiner processing about 678,000 barrels per day across several plants, is valued at around $16 billion, according to Reuters. Turkey's Tupras, with comparable capacity across four refineries, sits at about $12 billion.

Bird's argument is that Dangote's plant is not the same asset: it sits beside Nigeria's crude, runs on cheap domestic gas, and sells into a large market that has historically imported nearly all its refined fuel.

The offer covers 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each, seeking about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.63 billion). It opened on 14 September and closes on 13 October. At the offer price the company is valued at about ₦65.22 trillion. Dangote said on 15 September that he did not need the money he is raising.

The price has moved steadily upward through private rounds. A June placement valued the refinery at $39 billion and raised $1 billion. A July placement raised $2.5 billion at around $40 billion, a discount Bird has attributed to conditions institutional investors accepted, including a lock-up.

Bird, a British executive who spent 14 years at Shell before joining the group and took the top job in August 2025, has called this the "people's IPO," aimed at Nigerians, the diaspora and African investors more broadly. He has said the company wants an audited public track record before any foreign listing, putting a London or Johannesburg option at around 2029.