Africa's richest man plans to double his refinery and invest $45 billion more as he targets a $200 billion group valuation

Aliko Dangote has a number in mind for where his business empire is going, and it is not one that many people would put in writing: $200 billion in annual revenue, supported by a group valuation he believes the $45 billion expansion plan he has now outlined will eventually justify.

The African billionaire laid out the strategy in an interview with Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norges Bank Investment Management, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, during Dangote's recent visit to Oslo. The conversation, which was separate from the formal NBIM partnership discussions at the same meeting, has since been widely reported in the Nigerian press.

"So we'll be able to actually fund this $45 billion, which will eventually take us to $100 billion of revenue because our target is to get $200 billion by 2030," Dangote said. He described the philosophy behind the target simply: "If you think big, you grow big. When you think small, you don't grow at all."

The centrepiece of the expansion is the refinery. Dangote confirmed that the Lekki facility, currently processing 650,000 barrels of crude per day, will be more than doubled within 30 months to reach 1.4 million barrels per day. That would make it by some distance the largest single refinery operation on the planet. "We are more than doubling the refinery. In the next 30 months, we'll be at 1.4 million, which is huge," he said.

The $45 billion investment envelope covers refinery expansion, liquefied natural gas infrastructure and regional industrial projects across Africa. Dangote said the expansion strategy is anchored by a financial model built around export earnings, with 80 percent of group revenues expected to be denominated in US dollars. That dollar revenue base reduces foreign exchange risks and supports the dividend commitments attached to the planned refinery IPO, where investors will purchase shares in naira but receive dividends in dollars.

The group said it recorded approximately $3 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the most recent period. That figure is the base on which the expansion model is being built.

The expansion plan arrives simultaneously with three major capital market transactions. Dangote Cement is targeting a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange in September with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Standard Bank as advisers. The refinery IPO, targeting a valuation of between $40 billion and $50 billion, is expected to open for public subscription in August 2026. And a third offering for Dangote Fertilizer is also in preparation.

Running all three equity raises simultaneously while also outlining a $45 billion capital expenditure programme is an extraordinary sequence for any conglomerate, but particularly one that was privately held and operationally focused for most of its existence. What Dangote is doing in 2026 is opening his industrial empire to outside ownership at scale, across multiple assets and multiple exchanges, while simultaneously announcing his largest ever reinvestment programme.

He has also separately confirmed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has opened an upstream oil well and begun standard testing, with the expectation of producing marketable crude in the coming weeks. A refinery that also produces its own crude supply changes the input cost equation significantly and removes dependence on external suppliers, which has been one of the most persistent vulnerabilities since the facility began operations in 2024.

Dangote's net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index stood at approximately $35.9 billion in May 2026, making him Africa's richest person and one of a small number of individuals on the continent who has ever appeared in the global top 100.